FCN Forking Distributions
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Topic created by skolins on Wed Jul 20, 2016 at 4:15 pmFor those who were at the FCN event Sunday and are interested in what choices others made on the forks, below is some summary data from the courses. The first post collects data about forkings that were on multiple courses, while the later posts give data by individual course and individual results. The data gives the distribution for each individual forked control, and when there were multiple consecutive forks the distribution of combinations is also given. There were some controls with a pretty clear consensus on which fork to chose and others with a pretty even split. I found it interesting how for certain forks shared by multiple courses there was a big difference in how runners from different courses tended to approach the fork.
Shared forkings:
Brown, Green, Red, and Blue 2a (32) 35 64% 2a(32), 3a(33) 19 35% 2b (52) 20 36% 2a(32), 3b(53) 16 30% 2b(52), 3a(33) 1 2% 3a (33) 20 37% 2b(52), 3b(53) 18 33% 3b (53) 34 63% Brown and Blue 6a (36) 14 48% 6a(36), 7a(37), 8a(38) 1 4% 6b (56) 15 52% 6a(36), 7b(57), 8b(58) 12 43% 6b(56), 7a(37), 8a(38) 11 39% 7a (37) 12 43% 6b(56), 7b(57), 8b(58) 4 14% 7b (57) 16 57% 8a (38) 13 45% 8b (58) 16 55% Green, Red, and Blue (46) 7/9/16a 25 78% 46, 47, 48 15 47% (66) 7/9/16b 7 22% 46, 47, 68 4 13% 46, 67, 68 4 13% (47) 8/10/17a 22 69% 46, 67, 48 2 6% (67) 8/10/17b 10 31% 66, 47, 48 3 9% 66, 67, 68 4 13% (48) 9/11/18a 20 63% (68) 9/11/18b 12 38% (49) 10/12/19a 17 53% (69) 10/12/19b 15 47%
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Reply by skolins on Wed Jul 20, 2016 at 4:17 pmOrange Data:
3a (47) 25% 3b (48) 75% 6a (44) 18% 6b (54) 82% 8a (42) 25% 8b (62) 75% 9a (51) 0% 9b (61) 100% 10a (38) 17% 10b (58) 83%
Name 3 6 8 9 10 Y. Kelsall 8a (42) 3b (48) 6b (54) 9b (61) 10b (58) M. Racheva 10a (38) 3b (48) 6b (54) 8b (62) 9b (61) K. Moss 3b (48) 6b (54) 8b (62) 9b (61) 10b (58) M. Speizer 3b (48) 6b (54) 8b (62) 9b (61) 10b (58) P. Schuman 3b (48) 6b (54) 8b (62) 9b (61) 10b (58) R. Limouze 3a (47) 6a (44) 8a (42) 9b (61) 10b (58) P. Policelli 3b (48) 6b (54) 8b (62) 9b (61) 10b (58) J. Gillette 3a (47) 10a (38) 6b (54) 8b (62) 9b (61) A. Kelsall 6a (44) 3b (48) 8b (62) 9b (61) 10b (58) L. Kushleyeva 3b (48) 6b (54) 8b (62) 9b (61) 10b (58) J. Dixon 8a (42) 3b (48) 9b (61) 10b (58) D. Ulrich 3a (47) 6b (54) 8b (62) 9b (61) 10b (58) -
Reply by skolins on Wed Jul 20, 2016 at 4:18 pmBrown Data:
2a (32) 13 59% 2a, 3a 5 23% 2b (52) 9 41% 2a, 3b 8 36% 2b, 3b 9 41% 3a (33) 5 23% 3b (53) 17 77% 6a (36) 9 43% 6a, 7a, 8a 1 5% 6b (56) 12 57% 6a, 7b, 8b 7 35% 6b, 7a, 8a 9 45% 7a (37) 10 50% 6b, 7b, 8b 3 15% 7b (57) 10 50% 8a (38) 11 52% 8b (58) 10 48%
Brown Name 2 3 6 7 8 R. Wilkison 7a (37) 8a (38) 2b (52) 3b (53) 6b (56) B. Fink 7a (37) 8a (38) 2b (52) 3b (53) 6b (56) E. Scott 7a (37) 8a (38) 2b (52) 3b (53) 6b (56) S. Fillebrown 6a (36) 2b (52) 3b (53) 7b (57) 8b (58) S. Ahlswede 2a (32) 3a (33) 7a (37) 8a (38) 6b (56) A. MacMullan 2a (32) 3b (53) 6b (56) 7b (57) 8b (58) H. MacMullan III 2a (32) 3a (33) 6a (36) 7b (57) 8b (58) J. Riegner 2a (32) 3a (33) 6a (36) 7b (57) 8b (58) J. Driscall 2a (32) 7a (37) 8a (38) 3b (53) 6b (56) B. Rosenberger 2b (52) 3b (53) 6b (56) 7b (57) 8b (58) T. Walsh 6a (36) 2b (52) 3b (53) 7b (57) 8b (58) D. Prine 2a (32) 6a (36) 7a (37) 8a (38) 3b (53) D. Morgan 2a (32) 7a (37) 8a (38) 3b (53) 6b (56) R. Whiffen 7a (37) 8a (38) 2b (52) 3b (53) 6b (56) B. Agosta 2a (32) 3a (33) 6a (36) 7b (57) 8b (58) L. Geist 2a (32) 3a (33) 7a (37) 8a (38) 6b (56) R. Frank 2a (32) 7a (37) 8a (38) 3b (53) 6b (56) K. Geist 2a (32) 6a (36) 3b (53) 7b (57) 8b (58) N. Dolinger 2a (32) 6a (36) 3b (53) 7b (57) 8b (58) D. Emig 2a (32) 3b (53) 6b (56) 7b (57) 8b (58) D. Samans 6a (36) 8a (38) 2b (52) 3b (53) M. Frank 2b (52) 3b (53) -
Reply by skolins on Wed Jul 20, 2016 at 4:20 pmGreen Data:
2a (32) 10 67% 2a, 3a 6 43% 2b (52) 5 33% 2a, 3b 4 29% 2b, 3a 1 7% 3a (33) 7 50% 2b, 3b 3 21% 3b (53) 7 50% 7a (46) 8 57% 46, 47, 48 4 29% 7b (66) 6 43% 46, 47, 68 1 7% 46, 67, 68 3 21% 8a (47) 8 57% 66, 47, 48 3 21% 8b (67) 6 43% 66, 67, 68 3 21% 9a (48) 7 50% 9b (68) 7 50% 10a (49) 7 50% 10b (69) 7 50%
Name 2 3 7 8 9 10 K. Ahlswede 2a (32) 10a (49) 3b (53) 7b (66) 8b (67) 9b (68) S. Reed 2a (32) 7a (46) 10a (49) 3b (53) 8b (67) 9b (68) S. Thatcher 2a (32) 3a (33) 7a (46) 8b (67) 9b (68) 10b (69) A. DiStefano 2a (32) 7a (46) 8a (47) 9a (48) 10a (49) 3b (53) F. Reed 2a (32) 3a (33) 7a (46) 8b (67) 9b (68) 10b (69) E. Lawless 2a (32) 3a (33) 7a (46) 8a (47) 9a (48) 10b (69) R. Barron 2a (32) 10a (49) 3b (53) 7b (66) 8b (67) 9b (68) D. Reider 2a (32) 3a (33) 10a (49) 7b (66) 8b (67) 9b (68) R. H. Ebright 8a (47) 9a (48) 2b (52) 3b (53) 7b (66) 10b (69) B. Gross 3a (33) 7a (46) 8a (47) 9a (48) 2b (52) 10b (69) K. McCane 2a (32) 3a (33) 8a (47) 9a (48) 10a (49) 7b (66) F. Kruesi 7a (46) 8a (47) 10a (49) 2b (52) 3b (53) 9b (68) C. Guilfoyle 8a (47) 9a (48) 2b (52) 3b (53) 7b (66) 10b (69) F. Hogle 7a (46) 8a (47) 9a (48) 2b (52) 10b (69) R. Schandall 2a (32) 3a (33) -
Reply by skolins on Wed Jul 20, 2016 at 4:21 pmRed Data:
2a (32) 6 60% 2a, 3a 5 50% 2b (52) 4 40% 2a, 3b 1 10% 2b, 3a 0 0% 3a (33) 5 50% 2b, 3b 4 40% 3b (53) 5 50% 6a (36) 5 50% 46, 47, 48 4 40% 6b (64) 5 50% 46, 47, 68 3 30% 46, 67, 48 2 20% 9a (46) 9 90% 66, 67, 68 1 10% 9b (66) 1 10% 10a (47) 7 70% 10b (67) 3 30% 11a (48) 6 60% 11b (68) 4 40% 12a (49) 7 70% 12b (69) 3 30%
Name 2 3 6 9 10 11 12 E. Eddy 2a (32) 9a (46) 10a (47) 11a (48) 12a (49) 3b (53) 6b (64) L. Policelli 6a (36) 9a (46) 10a (47) 11a (48) 12a (49) 2b (52) 3b (53) G. Lennon 2a (32) 3a (33) 6a (36) 9a (46) 11a (48) 12a (49) 10b (67) T. Nolan 9a (46) 10a (47) 12a (49) 2b (52) 3b (53) 6b (64) 11b (68) N. Ohrwaschel 6a (36) 9a (46) 10a (47) 11a (48) 12a (49) 2b (52) 3b (53) A. Grechko 2a (32) 3a (33) 9a (46) 10a (47) 11a (48) 12a (49) 6b (64) D. Aleksieva 2a (32) 3a (33) 6a (36) 9a (46) 11a (48) 10b (67) 12b (69) A. Putilov 2a (32) 3a (33) 6a (36) 9a (46) 10a (47) 11b (68) 12b (69) N. Williamw 2a (32) 3a (33) 9a (46) 10a (47) 12a (49) 6b (64) 11b (68) S. Eland 2b (52) 3b (53) 6b (64) 9b (66) 10b (67) 11b (68) 12b (69) -
Reply by skolins on Wed Jul 20, 2016 at 4:22 pmBlue Data:
2a (32) 6 75% 2a, 3a 3 38% 2b (52) 2 25% 2a, 3b 3 38% 2b, 3a 0 0% 3a (33) 3 38% 2b, 3b 2 25% 3b (53) 5 63% 6a, 7a, 8a 0 0% 6a (36) 5 63% 6a, 7b, 8b 5 63% 6b (56) 3 38% 6b, 7a, 8a 2 25% 6b, 7b, 8b 1 13% 7a (37) 2 25% 7b (57) 6 75% 46, 47, 48 7 88% 46, 47, 68 0% 8a (38) 2 25% 46, 67, 68 1 13% 8b (58) 6 75% 66, 47, 48 0% 66, 67, 68 0% 12a (42) 1 11% 12b (62) 8 89% 14a (44) 9 100% 14b (64) 0 0% 16a (46) 8 100% 16b (66) 0 0% 17a (47) 7 88% 17b (67) 1 13% 18a (48) 7 88% 18b (68) 1 13% 19a (49) 3 38% 19b (69) 5 63%
Name 2 3 6 7 8 12 14 16 17 18 19 S. Ryzhkov 6a (36) 14a (44) 16a (46) 17a (47) 18a (48) 2b (52) 3b (53) 7b (57) 8b (58) 12b (62) 19b (69) A. Wibmer 2a (32) 3a (33) 6a (36) 14a (44) 16a (46) 17a (47) 18a (48) 19a (49) 7b (57) 8b (58) 12b (62) J. Driscoll 6a (36) 14a (44) 16a (46) 17a (47) 18a (48) 19a (49) 2b (52) 3b (53) 7b (57) 8b (58) 12b (62) S. Fedorov 2a (32) 6a (36) 12a (42) 14a (44) 16a (46) 3b (53) 7b (57) 8b (58) 17b (67) 18b (68) 19b (69) J. Colgan 2a (32) 7a (37) 8a (38) 14a (44) 16a (46) 17a (47) 18a (48) 3b (53) 6b (56) 12b (62) 19b (69) P. Shannon 2a (32) 3a (33) 7a (37) 8a (38) 14a (44) 16a (46) 17a (47) 18a (48) 19a (49) 6b (56) 12b (62) C. Carrick 2a (32) 14a (44) 16a (46) 17a (47) 18a (48) 3b (53) 6b (56) 7b (57) 8b (58) 12b (62) 19b (69) D. and N. Driscoll 14a (44) 16a (46) 17a (47) 18a (48) 12b (62) 19b (69) C. Driscoll 2a (32) 3a (33) 6a (36) 14a (44) 7b (57) 8b (58) 12b (62) -
Reply by Sandy on Wed Jul 20, 2016 at 6:49 pmCool! Thanks for all your work putting this together.
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Reply by twalsh on Thu Jul 21, 2016 at 9:58 amI agree with Sandy, way cool. Thanks for all the effort in producing this. I rarely look at a map again after the event. I dug the map out again and looked at the routes taken by others.Thanks.
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Reply by ErikEddy on Fri Jul 22, 2016 at 8:16 amI tried for 10b- didn't see it on my attack or bail out so ran to 10a instead. Anyone else do something similar?
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Reply by BobGross on Fri Jul 22, 2016 at 10:08 pmI wanted to also agree, the event with forking was a lot of fun.To respond to Erik's question, here I am on the first forks2b(52), 3a(33) 1 runner 2%I didn't plan it that way, but I missed 3b and kept on going down hill.Blame Gravity.
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Reply by edscott on Fri Jul 22, 2016 at 11:12 pmWill this event be on Route Gadget? Would be interesting to see routes and compare the legs.
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Reply by hughmac4 on Tue Jul 26, 2016 at 11:34 amEd:While I understand the utility of comparing routes visually, it's a very hard (for me!) RouteGadget import at this point, with multiple maps and Condes courses per actual event course. That may change, and we'll let everyone know if so.-Hugh
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Reply by hughmac4 on Tue Aug 2, 2016 at 8:44 amRouteGadget is FINALLY UP! Thanks for your patience, folks, and thanks for re-formatting everything so that we could get this done, Sam!
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Reply by skolins on Tue Aug 2, 2016 at 12:13 pmBig thank you to Hugh for making this work.
When you select a person, the route-gadget just shows the controls that individual chose to visit for each fork, so you can see each person's forking choices, even before they have entered their route.
If you want to see both options for each fork, just select a few different people to all display at once (for example, on Brown displaying both Sandy's at once will end up displaying all of the control options).
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Reply by LarryG on Thu Aug 4, 2016 at 10:56 pmSoo, I just did my French Creek Brown Route gadget and realized that 3 of the 4 forks were wrong on route gadget and also the original distribution list. I actually did 2a, 3b, 6b(after missing 6a), 7b(after missing 7a) and 8b. I was able to show much of my actual route to the correct controls, but was still forced to connect the wrong dots.
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Reply by skolins on Sun Aug 7, 2016 at 8:14 pmSorry about the typo Larry - that is my fault. Getting the forks into route gadget required a hand transfer of data, so there are probably a few errors in there on my part.
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Reply by LarryG on Mon Aug 8, 2016 at 10:33 pmOh, no wonder. I thought the epunch might record which control was punched, and transfer automatically. Oh well, close enough, I was able to work around it.
